Regardless of what the future holds, it was definitely a dramatic night.
I first heard about the possible killing of bin Laden through a friend's facebook post. At that time, I had no idea that he could have been killed inside Pakistan. I hurriedly checked my regular sources of news. The New York Times had a short confirmation from an anonymous public official. AP had a similar report, suggesting President Obama would address the nation shortly. On Facebook, several friends were making fun of the editing errors in the news bursts on the FOX news website. Links to a live telecast of Obama's statement appeared on my twitter feed. Meanwhile, Pakistani journalists on social media were warming up to the news.
That's when the first real shocker came. CNN reported Osama to have been killed in a mansion outside Islamabad, the federal capital of Pakistan. Damn! I thought. That's so close to home. I have spent almost all my life living in Rawalpindi, and I worked in Islamabad for a good one year after graduating from college. The only mansions I could think of outside of Islamabad were almost a few miles away from my city. Not only was this a surprise for me, but for many others as well, because I guess not many had ever suspected Osama of being found outside of
Pakistan's tribal belt.
Later, after actually watching some CNN coverage, I reached the conclusion that CNN presenters sucked at geography and had no clue what they were talking about.
I don't have a T.V., and being afraid there would be too much web traffic to watch a quality live stream of Obama's statement, I literally ran to the Future's lab at the Reynolds Journalism Institute on campus. I think it didn't take me more than five minutes to get there. Downstairs, there were at least a dozen people huddled in front of the four TV monitors; all of the screens showing CNN (Ah, well).
Most of the Pakistani news websites had crashed due to a surge in traffic. But, by then, Al Jazeera English was suggesting that the actual site of operation could've been Abbottabad. The Obama speech came on shortly afterward. He confirmed the operation to have taken place in Abbottabad. There was a brief acknowledgement to Pakistan's help in intelligence matters over the years. However, there was no mention of Pakistani special forces taking part in the operation.
Obama did mention that President Zardari had been informed, further giving credence to the idea that this could have been a unilateral U.S. mission that overrode Pakistan's sovereignty.
On the Pakistani media, anonymous ISI officials were being quoted as saying that this was actually a joint operation. There were speculations on twitter that something of this nature couldn't have been carried out in Abbottabad without the Pakistan Army being aware of it. Abbottabad, after all, is home to the Pakistan Military Academy where future soldiers of the Pakistan Army are trained, day in, day out.
It's plausible that the President Zardari's civilian government was not in the loop. The lack of an immediate response from the government might be explained on this basis. President Zardari has maintained the stance in a
recent opinion piece in the Washington Post.
This position will leave Pakistan with little credibility in the eyes of the International community. Some would argue that Pakistan doesn't have any credibility to begin with. Well, I guess if the Pakistani authorities have the same opinion, they probably feel no shame in sticking to this version.
So far, the
statement issued by the Pakistan Foreign Office is weak. It states that the U.S. took this action according to publicly announced U.S. policy. So, the U.S. can do whatever it wants within Pakistan? That's not a strong defense from Pakistani authorities at all. No qualms about sovereignty, no concerns about national security.
Now, people in the West might believe that the Americans got their information independently, without the help of the ISI, and conducted an unauthorized raid on Pakistani soil, and perhaps the ISI didn't even see it coming. But, Pakistanis would have a difficult time in believing this.
I think it is highly unlikely that the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing, the ISI, didn't know anything about Osama bin Laden hiding in its backyard. The civilian government might have not known about this, but it is implausible that the Army was unaware. For one, a perimeter sweep of the Pakistan Military Academy is essential for the security of the officer cadets. Moreover, each year the Pakistan Military top brass attends the passing out parade of the soldiers. The notion that they could be sitting there, watching the parade, with no knowledge that the world's leading terrorist is lounging in a house nearby defies logic. If, for a moment, I believe this idea to be true, it's probably the biggest security lapse/intelligence failure ever.
So, what does this mean for the Pakistan Army then? I think it kind of puts them in a double-bind.
If they knew about Osama's whereabouts and willingly gave the information away to the U.S., they can expect some backlash from Al-Qaeda, local terrorist outfits, the fundamentalist elements in the country and the religious parties. Additional questions about how long they knew about this and whether they were holding this information as a bargaining chip in their dealings with the U.S. also arise. These questions raise further doubts about Pakistan Army's unholy alliance with the terrorists. I mean, forget low-level militants, this was bin Laden himself.
I don't think taking this route will be a success, because firstly, it defies the recent angst the Pakistan Army has shown over the U.S. drone attacks, and secondly, it just gives the impression that Pakistan's borders are open to U.S. intrusion and it is quite helpless if the U.S. forces fly their helicopters within its airspace and carry out such operations.
Osama bin Laden, we are being told, is dead and
buried at sea. However, the repercussions of his death, and the questions raised regarding his killing would not drown easily. Obama's re-election bid might get a double boost from this, but I don't know if we'll ever be able to completely dispel the doubts regarding Pakistan's role in this whole affair.
As for the celebrations, there's a verse in Saif-ul-Malook that goes like:
Dushman maray tay khushi na kariye, sajna vi mar jana...
Translation: Don't rejoice when your enemies die, for friends will eventually depart as well...